Summary of content

While the future is inherently uncertain, all successful organisations have strategic, long range plans. This module will both showcase general principles that can increase the effectiveness of strategic planning and present techniques and methods that can be implemented to improve risk management in the planning process. The course focuses on strategic planning as it relates to risk management and building organisational resilience. By participating in strategic foresight exercises, students will learn how to identify risks and develop responses to them, enabling their organisations to build shock and stress absorption capacity against future risks.

Material will outline principles for focussed priority setting, effective communication, drawing on organisational strengths, seeking available expertise, and having the necessary agility to navigate uncertainty. Core concepts of uncertainty, complexity, contingency, ambiguity, and volatility will be discussed. The pitfalls for planners around extremely impactful rare and unpredictable future outlier events (Black Swans) including the inclination towards simplistic explanations for these events will be explored. The idea of learning from the future will be critiqued.

Key areas of focus include scenario planning, war gaming scenarios, horizon scanning and forecasting and back-casting.

Module structure

Assessment methods